Is it Time to Fix a Mistake That Has Been Going on For Centuries?

This question has been on the world agenda for the last century. It is the Kurdish independence issue has persisted for centuries and the fact that it concerns the long running Kurdish struggle for independence and the denial of their basic, universally recognized rights, like everyone else, have not been granted, Recently, the issue has reemerged more prominently due to the statements by the current and former high-ranking U.S. officials. This topic has come to the fore with the latest agreement made by the Kurdish regional government of northern Iraq with American Energy Companies. Here is what has happened in recent days:

n  On May 20, Reuters reported that Iraqi Kurdistan and U.S. firms HKN Energy and Wester Zagros announced a deal worth over $110 billion.

n  On May 20, Mike Pompeo stated: “America should respect the legitimacy of the 2017 Kurdish independence referendum, in which 93% of Iraqi Kurds chose independence.”

n  On May 21, Eli M. Gold: “Washington, I believe, is also ready for Kurdish independence. There are many within the administration that are pursuing that. There are many within the administration that would like to see President Trump call for Kurdish independence away from Baghdad and for your own autonomy. And I think that this is only the first step. President Barzani's message is only the first step towards that goal.”

First, we need to define the mistake referred to in the quote of Mike Pompeo says,

 “The United States chose to place Iraq’s artificial stability over Kurdish aspirations — a mistake we should now rectify.”

The mistake refers to the legitimacy of the 2017 Referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan that resulted with nearly 93% of the population saying yes to the independent Kurdish state.

Unfortunately, history has repeated itself again and Iraqi government failed to respect Kurdish rights and launched an offensive to take great portion of Kurdish administrated regions leading the loss of Kirkuk, Mosul, and Khanaqin which are major Kurdish cities. Under Donald Trump’s administration, Kurdish allies were not supported, which led to the creation of instability within the Kurdish state and showed once again that The United States prioritized to Iraq’s artificial stability over Kurdish aspirations.

Once again, the Kurds were abandoned by the U.S., left vulnerable to forces that had long persecuted them. Today, KRG still faces the Baghdad’s undermining and exploitation of Kurdish rights again. This puts 8-12 million Kurdish people at the risk of renewed conflict that can lead into the destruction and potentially genocide of Kurdish people as tragically seen before during the Anfal campaign in 1970s and 1980s, including the chemical genocide of Kurds in Halabja and the persecution of Feyli Kurds in Diyala, Wasit, and Maysan governates.

 Artificial stability refers to the West’s reliance on centralized regimes like Iraq’s in hopes of maintaining order, even when those regimes consistently violate human rights and show how deep hostility towards Kurdish Autonomy.

An analysis from (ACLED) that is based on regional overview of conflict in the Middle East, shows the major developments in countries like Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Turkey, and Palestine over a month period from 13 August-9 September 2022. If we analyze the map more closely, we can see that the Kurdish inhabited provinces spanning Northern Iraq, Southeastern Turkey, Western Iran, and Northern Syria that are experiencing highest concentrations of the violent events, many with more than 30 separate incidents just over a month.

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Now on we must ask: What Makes Kurdish Autonomy Necessary in The Region? because the set of provinces that just lined on the map is called the Kurdish-inhabited area These Kurdish-inhabited provinces experience the highest frequency and diversity of violent events some occurring more than 30 times in just-over a month.

This isn’t coincidental. It reflects a region stuck in a cycle of repression, where Kurdish identity is criminalized, aspirations are denied, and security is traded for silence. Supporting artificial stability over Kurdish self-determination  has become a policy that guarantees neither peace nor democracy. The leading threats to Kurdish autonomy remain Iran, both of which pursue policies of systemic oppression in Kurdish-populated areas. The most effective path forward is a U.S.-backed, internationally guaranteed Kurdish state — one that can secure the basic rights and survival of its people.

Artificial Stability in Iraq has always consistently led to oppression and ethnic cleansing of Kurds and A brief example is the following of this is the Persecution of Feyli Kurds in Ba’athist Iraq ending up committing genocide against Feyli Kurds and briefly example could be the following: “More than 1,700 Kurdish families have left Jalawla town,” he said. “The Kurds make up only 30 percent of the town of Mandali,  whereas they comprised more than 70 percent of the population in the 1970s,”

This is enough to reflect what Arabization did to the Kurdish majority province which was majorly Kurdish until 1970s but then became Arabized state followed by Wasit and partially Maysan by others fleeing to Iran or elsewhere following Anfal campaign which will be remembered by Halabja Genocide.

How Real is The Kurdish Aspiration in The Region?

What Brings with it:

The Kurdish people are one of the oldest ethnic groups in Mesopotamia and with a population with an estimated 50-70 million across the world and, 8-12 million people living in Iraq. The U.S. has a unique opportunity to support peaceful, democratic transition toward Kurdish autonomy. President Donald trump came with promise of peaceful world and if he contributes this effort he will be recorded to history with golden letters.

With U.S. support to the KRG could regain the control of Kirkuk, Mosul, Khanaqin and surrounding regions through legal process as Article 140 states the referendum favored KRG back in 2017 can be implemented by KRG gaining control over oil rich and strategic areas like Kirkuk, Mosul, parts of Nineveh, Diyala and Salahaddin. Which will lead to a peaceful resolution to one of the persistent internal conflicts in Iraq will mark the beginning of the stabilization within the region.

 The KRG already controls 45 billion barrels of oil reserve and disputed Kurdish majority territories consists of 20% of the Iraqi oil reserves independently from the official KRG control area will add up to half of Iraqi oil totaling up to 74 billion barrel of oil placing U.S. backed Kurdish state among the world’s top 10 oil rich nation, just behind the Russia.

 Later, the strategic model of an independent Kurdistan could extend into Iran, serving as a “Kurdish Model” which will serve as a democratic, Pro-Western, Pro Human Right, Strong nation called Kurdistan in a region dominated by authoritarianism and violence. And all of this could become reality if United States offered just a bit more consistent support.

If the United States wants lasting peace in the Middle East, it must stop choosing artificial stability over human dignity. It is time to correct a century old mistake. The Kurds fought beside United States, embraced democratic ideals, and bled for causes that were not their own.

All Kurdish people ask now is for America to stand with them not in speeches, but in action.